The US mid-term elections are always consequential for multiple reasons. First and foremost, it is the referendum on the incumbent President and the popularity of his policies. The second is because it is the election to the US Congress and State governors who form the legislative wing of the US Federal and state government. The 2022 midterm election was one of the closest elections in the US in a century. Hence, the result has a widespread impact on American domestic politics and beyond.
The Significance of US-Midterm Elections
The midterm elections were conducted in the post-pandemic period, where life is returning to normalcy as well as the geopolitical issues like the Ukrainian war and the inflation that has affected the West directly impacted the election. As a result, the US Congress is the most powerful organ of the Federal government, and the election outcome would influence Biden's Presidency, US politics, and American Foreign Policy. Post-2020 Presidential race, domestic politics had become extremely partisan and a divided society which had tightened the race in 2022 in both House and the Senate. Due to this, the margin between the winning and losing party is minimal due to extreme polarisation.
US Congress is divided into two chambers- the lower House of Representatives and the upper Senate. Both have distinctive working and functions. Unlike other countries, US Congress protects the federal nature of the US Constitution and the political system. House of Representatives deals with taxation, commerce, the budget of the federal government, impeachment of federal officials, including the President, making policies, conducting congressional hearings and a lot more. The Senate is in charge of US Foreign Policy, where it ratifies treaties, confirms Presidential appointments, the conviction of impeached officials and much more. Both chambers together are responsible for electing the President and Vice President in case of a Presidential tie, and lastly, only Congress has the power to declare war. Hence, mid-term elections lay down the path of US policies for years to come. Every mid-term, the entire House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate and a set of state governors are elected.
Issues that made the election unique
The Midterm elections made headlines across the globe for various domestic and international issues. In the House of Representatives, the situation of the economy, mainly the US gas prices, was the main talking point, followed by the issues of crime, which the Republican party was genuinely enthusiastic about. In contrast, the issue of abortion after the overturning of the Roe vs Wade judgement by the Supreme Court and the January 6th insurrection and establishment of the committee was the talking point for the Democratic party. Apart from that, the two years of the House saw multiple bipartisan legalizations like the Infrastructure Act, The Chips Act, etc., which were landmark achievements.
In Senate, the US foreign policy was one of the most essential issues post-US exit from Afghanistan and the outbreak of the Ukrainian war. Besides that, the issue of guns and immigration policies were also talked about. During the elections, more emphasis on the quality of senatorial candidates was also significant, primarily for the Republicans due to their poor choice in several swing states. In the Gubernatorial races, various state issues, the candidate quality, and the issue of abortion decided the outcome. The low popularity of Joe Biden, the stature of the economy, and the role of Donald Trump played an important role this time.
Analysis of the Mid-term Elections 2022 results
Unlike the reports of a red wave in the House, the outcome indicated only a red ripple. The Republican party was unable to perform as they expected to do. Despite all odds, they regained control of the House of Representatives 222-213 with a wafer-thin margin. They made gains in Florida, New York, Tennessee, and Nebraska through gerrymandering of the congressional maps, which kept their majority intact. Democrats controlled Senate 51-49 by flipping Republican seats like in Pennsylvania and winning Georgia's runoff in 2023. The low candidate quality of Trump-endorsed Republicans helped Democrats regain the senate elections. Both parties performed well in the Governor's race, with exemplary performances from Ron DeSantis in Florida, Gavin Newsom in California, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, and Brian Kemp in Georgia.
Republicans consolidated their votes among the white non-graduate voters and the religious conservatives. Democrats consolidate the women's vote, young voters, college-going and college-graduated population, racial minorities etc. Latino voters, primarily in Florida, are gravitating towards the Republican party. Geographically, Republicans kept control of rural areas, while Democrats performed well in urban areas and suburbs. The metropolitan areas Democrats lost were due to gerrymandering. As predicted, Democrats performed well in New England region, East and West coast states, and almost all the swing states. Republicans held onto Mid-West, and the Southern States, barring Georgia and states with meagre populations.
Conclusion
Albeit the low popularity of President Biden, Democrats have performed way better than the historical trends and all the predictions. Women's vote and young voters have shown their strength against the establishment, which usually takes their vote for granted. Racial minorities are gradually moving towards Republicans, predominantly a party that has always been white-dominant. The elections have also increased the number of Indian-American Representatives. With the Senate in the hands of Democrats, there won't be any radical changes to US foreign policy, and US aid to Ukraine will continue. There is uncertainty regarding US debt, budget and aid to Ukraine, which will be dealt with by the Republican-controlled House, which is highly sceptical of Federal government spending. Whether Biden will secure a second term is yet to be clear, but numbers are in the hands of Democrats as swing states have continued to vote Democratic.
Kommentare