Introduction
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the New Silk Road is the colossal infrastructural development project aimed at increased global economic cooperation between the Eastern and Western world. It is said to have spurred a new wave of globalization and growth to Asian economies. It was launched a decade ago, in 2013 by the Chinese President Xi Jingping and changed the course of China’s political and economic influence across Asia, Africa, Oceania and Latin America.
The concept of a Silk Route emerged during the Han dynasty (206 BCE- 220 CE) which connected the East to West via the present day Central Asian region primarily and South Asian countries of India and Pakistan. Thus, Central Asia began emerging as the epicenter for global exchange of trade and culture. The BRI proposed by Xi was two fold:
An overland Silk Road Economic Belt
Maritime Silk Road
The two fold initiative was collectively called the One Belt, One Road initiative later came to be known as the Belt and Road Initiative. The transnational infrastructural projects were envisioned to increase the international use of Chinese currency and “break the bottleneck in Asian connectivity”. The BRI project proposed by Xi Jingping during a speech in the Nazarbayev University. The BRI project was one of its kind emphasizing how the Central Asian Republics (CARs) can help connect China, East Asia and Europe. Today 147 countries out of 193 in the world have either signed for BRI projects or have showcased interest in doing so.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is the wealthiest country among CARs. Kazakhstan has the largest trade relationship with China in the region where the bilateral trade accounts for around $31 billion, making up to 40% of China’s total trade in Central Asia. Until 2019, Kazakhstan experienced an iron fist rule under ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev. In 2022, with the new president Kassym Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan was promised a variety of reforms. The host visits Khorgos, the village in Kazakhstan bordering China. Khorgos serves as an important transport and logistics center in Kazakhstan connecting China to Europe. Khorgos was a desert land but now is a land which connects the worlds via rail. It also provides the locals with employment opportunities transforming a village to an urbanized city which once was a barren land. The Khorgos gateway project is seen as an important project which has the potential to transform the global trade supply chain. Traditionally, it would take 45-50 days to ship goods from China to Europe. But it is estimated that it would only take less than 25 days to transfer goods via rail route in Central Asia. Post pandemic supply chain disruption, stagnation in trade due to Russo- Ukrainian war and the increased US-China rivalry are key factors influencing the developments in Central Asia. Officials in Khorgos claim that the Ukraine war has disrupted nearly half of transhipment volume via train routes. Almaty is the largest and most populous country in Kazakhstan and remains the commercial, financial and cultural center of the country. Recently, China’s growing presence has showcased discontent among locals giving rise to anti-china sentiments. A survey conducted by Central Asia barometer during 2017-2021 suggests that a negative view on China has consistently outweighed positive view in Kazakhstan.
Uzbekistan
The BRI has triggered mixed reviews regarding different projects among the CARs and has been able to redefine the future role of the region in the global geoeconomics. CARs developed a positive sentiment toward China as they leveraged to push the region to the forefront of the global trade route which was otherwise considered the backyard of Russia. It is also important to note the contributions made to security and development in the region by other external and regional powers- including the United States, India and Turkey. Tashkent has witnessed steady and increased Chinese investment. Isolationist regime of Karimov left Uzbekistan with underdevelopment of infrastructure. BRI coincided with a time when Uzbekistan was also witnessing a new era of reforms including the opening up of the country. Uzbekistan looks toward China to transform itself as a regional transit hub. China’s BRI projects are promised to bring economic prosperity to Uzbekistan. Current president Mirziyoyev was quick to bandwagon to join the BRI projects. Today, Chinese investments have linked the remotest areas like that of Farhana valley to the mainland Uzbekistan through the 19.2 KM Kamchiq tunnel. Uzbekistan has also shown interest in boosting its soft power via the infrastructural investments. Nazarbekov Ozodbek, Uzbekistan Minister of Culture and Tourism says Samarkand served as an important ancient city in the Silk Route and it is impossible to think of the BRI project as a revival of silk route without Uzbekistan.
Analysis
The changing geopolitical environment then included the US-China trade war, eruption of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the advancement of BRI projects in Asia, all contributing to the geopolitical shifts in Central Asia. Changing sentiments towards China and BRI projects negatively have certainly paved the way to look toward alternative trade routes such as via the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Experts claim that the BRI project serves as a mutually beneficial project to all the actors involved such as China as the manufacturer country, Kazakhstan as the transit country and Russia and Europe being the end customers- all benefitting equally and none benefitting more over another. The International Center for Border Corporation (ICBC) also opens up the possibility for people to people, cultural and economic exchange. Ever since the Russo-Ukrainian war, CARs have also aspired for a more independent foreign policy.
China definitely has both geopolitical and economic interest in the region with Xi Jingping promoting a vision of a more assertive China- an important element in Chinese statecraft. The BRI also is viewed as an eastern counterpart to the US's Pivot to Asia policy, which succeeded in bringing China to the center of the global trade map. China also has security interests in the Central Asian region especially in the conflict zone of Xinjiang in the western province of China. Abundant resources in the region also makes it an epicenter for an undisruptive future global energy supply chain.
Conclusion
COVID-19 and the Russo-Ukrainian war has disrupted the global supply chain of trade and have triggered an energy insecurity worldwide. This has also led to few countries becoming bankrupt and unable to pay back loans associated with the BRI projects, which makes them highly vulnerable to debt traps and series of economic crises. Many view Chinese expansion as a modern form of economic imperialism making themselves a space in global politics as the next hyper-power or the hegemon- a title which the United States held until recent years. The Biden administration has collaborated with the G-7 countries and launched a parallel initiative called Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative to compete with the BRI but the BRI definitely holds an economic advantage over the B3W. Jonathan E. William of the Center for Strategic and International Studies is of the view that the BRI projects in Central Asia could be of potential interest to the United States. India certainly acts as a counterweight to China’s rise as a regional hegemon and partners with the US over strategic interests in projects such as the 2022 Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Other counter regional powers include Japan which has initiated projects such as the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) connecting Asia from Myanmar to East Africa. But no other parallel projects which are aimed at competing with China’s BRI project have been able to actively challenge the developments made by BRI for the past one decade.
References
CNA Correspondent (Director). (2023). China's Belt and Road In Central Asia: A Decade On - Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan [Film; Youtube]. CNA Insider. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-_m4JueFtg
Chatzky, A. (2023, February 2). China's Massive Belt and Road Initiative. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved October 28, 2023, from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative
Enlightening.